Bits & Pieces
Edition #297 | 18/09/2026
Most Traded | Markets & Macro | Beiersdorf | Chart of the Week | IT-ETFs | Scalable News | Retirement in Focus
An unprecedented show of unity among powerful tech bosses: Amodei, Altman, Musk and Alex Karp agree that AI development is moving too fast and needs guardrails – not without self-interest. Meanwhile, Fed chief Kevin Warsh draws the ire of the US president with his rate hike. We look at how the rate turn impacts global national debt. Also: Why it could pay off to keep an eye on cybersecurity ETFs in times of growing AI concerns.
This newsletter contains ads.
Note: The data refers to the ratio of purchases and sales of the 100 most traded stocks on Scalable Broker between 11/09/2026 and 17/09/2026.
In the spotlight: McDonald’s
The stock of fast-food chain McDonald’s has been on a downward trend for some time. Concerns include price increases that could lead to declining sales. Overall, however, business is running well, so some likely used the favorable entry point. As a dividend aristocrat, the franchise giant has raised its payout for 49 consecutive years. For the first time since the pandemic, the dividend yield has reached 3 % again.
Rate dispute and AI coalition
1:0 for Kevin Warsh. With the rate hike of 25 basis points to 3.75 % - 4.00 % this week, the Fed chief sent a clear signal to Donald Trump: He will not be pressured by him. The US president has repeatedly called for low interest rates for a booming economy. Fortunately, Warsh prioritizes his duty as guardian of price stability, actively combating excessive inflation – for which Trump is not least partly responsible, talking about tariffs, oil and Iran. Whether the rate peak has already been reached is likely to remain disputed between Warsh and Trump as well. Market participants expect another rate hike later this year, according to the FedWatch tool.
A rare show of unity was demonstrated by some of the most powerful AI bosses. Anthropic chief Dario Amodei in an essay called for slowing down the pace of developing new AI models due to safety risks. xAI chief Elon Musk, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and later Palantir CEO Alex Karp joined him. They demand regulation and testing within AI before new performance levels are released – with Amodei bringing self-regulation to the table. Trump rejects state guardrails out of fear that China might race ahead in the tech race.
Tech moguls warning against their own AI progress may be fitting. But behind it certainly lies strategic calculation: Better to establish regulation themselves before other forces get involved (for instance after the midterms). Add to that the emphasis on the superior power of future AI systems: Perfect marketing, especially with a view to upcoming IPOs.
From hero to zero
Who doesn't know the blue Nivea tin? Almost a German cultural icon, it sits in countless bathrooms. And Labello has long become synonymous with lip balm. For a long time the two brands were the main drivers for Hamburg-based Beiersdorf Group. In fiscal year 2025, they contributed over 50 % to total revenue. Yet it was the duo that caused Beiersdorf to lower its profit forecast for the current fiscal year. The reason: Half-year figures show a revenue decline of 3.5 %. At Nivea, sales slumped by 7 %. Since mid-2024, the stock – actually a defensive value – has nearly halved.
The problem: The attempt to establish the traditional brand in the high-end segment did not work out. CEO Vincent Warnery admitted to having "lost momentum in categories such as personal care". At the same time, affordable private labels like "balea" from drugstore chain dm are attacking in the low-budget sector. Warnery has now prescribed a turnaround treatment for skin care brand Nivea. Instead of facial care, affordable products like deodorant and shower gel are supposed to drive volume again. Added to this is a € 100 million ad offensive that also relies on influencers. Warnery believes this can put Beiersdorf back on a growth path starting in 2027.
How is the rest of the portfolio doing? A bright spot is medical skin care (Eucerin and Aquaphor), which grew by 7.8 %. Meanwhile, adhesive tape brand tesa – which recently contributed 17 % to total revenue – suffers from structural weakness in the automotive and electronics industries.
Rising interest rates to grow debt mountains
Debt levels of leading industrial nations as share of GDP in %
Source: OECD
Huge mountains of debt are bad. Huge mountains of debt that keep getting more expensive are even worse. That is precisely the problem many leading economies are struggling with in light of rising interest rates. Because with them, new loans get more expensive, as does refinancing existing liabilities.
Currently, the debt ratio in many countries stands above 100 % of gross domestic product. Italy groans, and in the US, the interest burden even exceeds the defense budget. Germany stands relatively well off thanks to the long-standing debt brake. A special case is Japan: Despite extremely high debt, the economy is considered quite stable because the state holds its debt in its own currency mainly with domestic investors - and is thus not dependent on foreign creditors.
But why did states allow debt mountains to pile up like this? The era of low, zero and negative interest rates provided cheap money for social spending and economic aid. Additional loans were taken out during the financial, euro and COVID crises. In good economic times, debt reduction often fell by the wayside.
Cyber defense wall for your portfolio
Recently, the hacker group Rhysida breached the systems of the Berlin administration, stealing over 1.4 million documents – and ultimately leaking them on the darknet. Alongside personnel files and official letters, data on critical infrastructure such as hospitals or defense companies is likely affected. This is just one of countless examples of how the threat from cyberattacks is growing globally.
Billions are therefore flowing into IT security for states and companies. This growing market can also be represented in a portfolio. The iShares Digital Security UCITS ETF lists more than 110 companies from developed and emerging markets dedicated to digital security – including data privacy or secure infrastructure. Twice a year, all titles are largely equal-weighted, eliminating cluster risks and giving small caps higher relevance.
A broader alternative is the Amundi MSCI Digital Economy UCITS ETF, which tracks the entire digital economy. Beside IT security, the ETF focuses on areas like digital payments, e-commerce or cloud computing – top ranks are held by AMD, CrowdStrike or Visa. More Europe is available with the Xtrackers Europe Defence Technologies UCITS ETF. Under the motto "defense", it considers defense, aerospace and cybersecurity – three sectors essential for a country's independence.
Scalable takes it up a notch
Although Scalable Fixed-Term Deposit launched only recently, there is already an update you can benefit from – starting today, the following guaranteed interest rates apply:
- 3 % interest p.a.* on invested balance for a term of 12 months
- 3.25 % interest p.a.* on invested balance for a term of 24 months
Secure predictable interest income with Scalable Fixed-Term Deposit. You can find the option in the Scalable-App.
*Conditions as well as balance allocation at scalable.capital/festgeld.
Retirement savings with Scalable bonus
The Scalable raffle to top up your retirement savings is still running. Of the five available chances, four are still open. What you can win and how it works:
- Scalable tops up the € 540 from the state by another € 540 per year until retirement.
- What you need to do: Add the retirement savings account (AVD) to your products in the Scalable app or web right now – and you enter the draw. The earlier you participate, the higher your chances of winning.
The terms and conditions apply.
In this section, we provide quick, direct answers to your key questions about the proposed retirement savings account for Germany.
I have a Riester contract. Will it become invalid due to the planned AVD?
- No. For Riester contracts concluded before January 1, 2027, comprehensive grandfathering applies by law. Your contract continues unchanged.
- From 2027 onwards, however, you have three options: You can continue paying into your Riester contract, freeze contributions and simultaneously save in a new AVD, or transfer your capital into an AVD without subsidies.
- Scalable will offer a free switching service.
Editorial deadline: Friday, 7 a.m.
Sources: Scalable and dpa-AFX