Bits & Pieces
Edition #277 | 30/04/2026
Most traded | Markets & Macro | Pharma | Chart of the Week | Utility ETFs | Scalable News
The US president is risking an escalation of the war in Iran with a counter-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Yet investors are keeping their cool – at least for now. Despite tensions in Iran, markets remain steady. How so? We break it down for you. We also take a closer look at why utility ETFs are proving their resilience in turbulent times, and why US banks are still popping the champagne despite geopolitical headwinds. Also in focus: Why a double-digit drop in profits at pharma giant Johnson & Johnson may not be as alarming as it seems.
Note: The data refers to the ratio of purchases and sales of the 100 most traded stocks on Scalable Broker between 27/04/2026 and 30/04/2026.
Party on the edge of the cliff
While the global economy is choking on blocked trade routes, and the IMF is waving red flags, the corks are popping on Wall Street. Why?
- Banking boom as the beat: Giants from the financial industry, such as JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo have blown expectations out of the water.
- Trading desks are steaming: At the six biggest US banks, trading revenues jumped 17% year‑on‑year to 45 billion dollars. Volatility is basically a revenue driver for trading divisions, even as the overall environment becomes riskier.
- Hope vs. harsh reality: Even with the trade blockade and surging energy prices, investors are betting that the AI‑driven rally and rock‑solid corporate profits will outweigh geopolitical shocks.
- The paradox: Blocked trade routes are fueling inflation fears, yet the market is counting on America’s “relative strength.” The script goes like this: When the world is burning, money flees to the US dollar and US stocks. And if things escalate, central banks will step in with a safety net. In other words, the crisis is feeding the hope for cheaper money (bad news is good news).
- IMF view from the clouds: The April World Economic Outlook warns that the Middle East conflict is weighing on the global outlook. Because of higher energy prices, the IMF has cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1% – with rising inflation risks.
Takeaway: The market can clearly see the storm clouds, but it’s still dancing in the rain – as long as earnings and revenues keep flowing and the Fed is trusted as the backup umbrella.
Cloud brummt, CapEx explodiert
Alphabet, Amazon, Meta und Microsoft haben am Mittwochabend ihre Quartalszahlen vorgelegt und die Markterwartungen geschlagen – sowohl beim Umsatz als auch beim Nettogewinn. Außerdem sollen die KI-Ausgaben auf breiter Front weiter steigen. Was war im Einzelnen los?
- Alphabet erzielte mit seiner Cloud-Sparte über 20 Mrd. $ Umsatz – 63 % mehr als im Vorjahreszeitraum und deutlich mehr als erwartet. Um das KI-Wachstum noch weiter zu befeuern, schraubt die Google-Mutter die Investitionen hoch. Im laufenden Jahr sollen bis zu 190 Mrd. $ fließen.
- Amazons Cloud-Sparte wuchs um 28 % auf 37,6 Mrd. $ – ebenfalls über den Erwartungen. Dieses Jahr sieht man rund 200 Mrd. $ unter anderem für KI-Infrastruktur und das neue Satelliten-Business Leo vor, mit dem man Elon Musks SpaceX ab dem dritten Quartal Konkurrenz machen will.
- Meta enttäuschte bei den Nutzerzahlen, die im Vergleich zum Vorquartal um 0,5 % fielen. Schuld seien der Irankrieg und Einschränkungen in Russland. Bisher hat Meta dieses Jahr weniger investiert als erwartet. Für das Gesamtjahr hob man die Prognose jedoch auf bis zu 145 Mrd. $ für KI und Co. an.
- Microsofts Cloud-Dienst Azure schlug die Erwartungen der Wall Street mit einem Plus von 40 % im Vorjahresvergleich. Außerdem hat man einen Meilenstein bei der KI-Adoptionsrate erreicht: Mehr als 20 Millionen Arbeitsplätze verfügen mittlerweile über aktive Abos des KI-Add-ons Copilot für Microsoft 365.
Am heutigen Donnerstagabend nach US-Börsenschluss werden zudem noch die Quartalsergebnisse von Apple erwartet.
100 years in the haystack
Analysis of 29,081 US stocks (1926-2025)
Source: "One Hundred Years in the U.S. Stock Markets" by Prof. Hendrik Bessembinder
Don't look for the needle in the haystack – just buy the haystack! This is one of the most famous pieces of advice from Jack Bogle, the pioneer of index investing who passed away in 2019. To judge how sound this advice really was, it is worth looking at just how large the needle we are looking for actually is.
From 1926 to 2025, the entire value creation of the US stock market was attributable to just 3.7% of companies. This is the sobering conclusion reached by Hendrik Bessembinder, Professor of Finance at Arizona State University, who analysed more than 29,000 US stocks for his study. This means that the total wealth growth of the US stock market "wealth machine" was driven by just 1,000 companies. The remaining 28,000 only achieved a collective break-even, with more than half of them actually destroying value on balance.
What does this mean for long-term investors who can't afford to miss the needle in the haystack? The simplest solution is to follow Jack Bogle's credo: Cover the market completely with broadly diversified ETFs. Anyone who relies on their own stock-picking skills instead will find a clear warning in Bessembinder's figures. Only with a portfolio of individual stocks that is extremely disciplined and diversified across different sectors and regions can the statistical chance of having one of the few true "needles" in your own basket be maintained.
AI hunger and power highways
Utilities are the backbone of daily life. They generate energy, operate grids, and supply households and companies with electricity, gas, and water. It is a capital-intensive and heavily regulated business that requires high levels of investment – while at the same time offering stable cash flows and dividends.
In Europe, utilities are at the center of the energy transition, and it is not only about expanding wind and solar capacity. “Green” electricity also requires modern grids that can intelligently distribute fluctuating renewable output. This is where “interconnectors” come in – cross-border electricity highways that the EU plans to expand significantly to ensure supply security and lower electricity prices. By 2030, every EU country should be able to export at least 15% of its electricity production across borders. The logical next step would be consolidation among European utilities and grid operators. If the European Commission relaxes its traditionally strict merger control, this could provide a strong tailwind for utility stocks bundled in the Amundi STOXX Europe 600 Utilities ETF.
In the US, the sector is primarily benefiting from the energy demand of AI data centres. Long-term supply contracts with hyperscalers such as Microsoft or Amazon ensure predictable revenues. At the same time, despite a broad mix of fossil fuels, renewables, and nuclear power, local bottlenecks and outages continue to occur. Exelon, for example – also included in the iShares S&P 500 Utilities Sector ETF – plans to invest over $40 billion in transmission and distribution infrastructure by 2029.
Overall, 74 global utilities are included in the Xtrackers MSCI World Utilities ETF. The largest holdings, together accounting for around 14%, are the US-based NextEra Energy and Spain’s Iberdrola, with the latter investing its profits internationally and now generating about one-fifth of its revenue each in the US and Brazil.
Win OMR tickets
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Coming of age
They grow up so fast. Although our world ETF, the Scalable MSCI AC World Xtrackers, is not even one and a half years old yet, it already represents more than €500 million in assets under management.
Important notice: Until June, the ETF’s total expense ratio (TER) is still 0.00%. From the 11th June onward, the regular TER of a low 0.17% per year will apply again. More information can be found on the Xtrackers product page.
Editorial deadline: Thursday, 7 a.m.
Sources: Scalable and dpa-AFX